Project Overview

How will converging geophysical and socioeconomic pressures shape Arctic development between now and 2050?

CPAD (Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development), a multi-institution consortium, will address this question through a pan-Arctic, multi-scaled analysis of geophysical climate change, economic potentials, and evolving structures of management and sovereignty. Our central objective is to identify robust and grounded loci where development pressures are most likely to converge in the future, and to assess the long-term implications of their development for Arctic communities, environments, industries, and international policy.

The CPAD consortium is a National Science Foundation funded project under the program Navigating the New Arctic.

Intellectual Merit

The CPAD consortium will use convergent quantitative and qualitative methodologies These include transportation and infrastructure modeling, climate modeling, remote sensing, archival research, surveys and interviews, policy dynamics analysis, and structured expert games. The method is as follows: Known locations of natural resources will be intersected with national- and company-level ambitions for specific projects and industries. Identified loci of resource development will be incorporated into a comprehensive new version of the Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (ATAM), driven by a suite of high-resolution climate model scenarios, to evaluate potential impacts on oceans (sea ice) and land (snow, frozen ground and freshwater ice). Simulated envelopes of plausible transportation corridors will be assessed in the context of current and planned infrastructure, lease sales, environmental regulations, multi-lateral agreements, likely global destinations for Arctic resources, emergency management, environmental vulnerabilities and Indigenous sovereignty. An independent International Reference Group (IRG) of external academic, Indigenous and practitioner experts will ensure that CPAD’s development of pan-Arctic, generalizable findings that are grounded in real world experience. Regular feedback and correction from IRG members will be complimented with additional validation strategies, including satellite-based testing of model simulations, Delphi expert assessment, and a grounded case study in Kirkenes, Norway. In its final year, CPAD will release a major assessment report identifying convergent geophysical and social pressures on Arctic development, and their potential cascading impacts on local communities, the environment, global commodity chains, and international relations.

Broader Impacts

First, Workforce development is an important impact of this multi-institutional, international consortium. The research team recognizes the importance of improving the diversity of scholars engaged in polar research. To that end the team will recruit undergraduates, graduate students, post-doctoral fellows, and IRG members with both diversity and inclusion outcomes as key metrics of success.

Second, stakeholder engagement is central to generating impactful research. The IRG will ensure that CPAD’s research focus and findings remain relevant, timely and realistic throughout the project. Currently pledged members include leaders in academia, Indigenous policy bodies, businesses, and NGOs.

Third, existing relationships with the Arctic Shipping Forum, the Nord University Business School and the Center for High North Logistics will help ensure international impact.

Fourth, by the conclusion of the project, investigators from 9 institutions will have pooled convergent expertise in geospatial analysis, climate modeling, infrastructure and logistics assessment, and financial analysis to assess Arctic development potential tempered by real-world constraints. A significant broader impact of this research will therefore be advancing a coordinated suite of quantitative and qualitative methodologies for this convergent approach to enquiry.

Fifth, to secure wide dissemination of this research all CPAD team members will contribute to writing the first Arctic Resource Development Assessment (ARDA) synthesizing current knowledge, uncertainties and likely future directions for Arctic development. We anticipate this publicly accessible report will support communities, governments, businesses and industries seeking to navigate the New Arctic.